Scheduled Elections
•Our electoral system has staggered terms for some offices, meaning that not all offices are up for election at the same time
•All House members are up for election every 2 years •Only 1/3 of the senators are up for election at the same time •President is elected every 4 years •Presidents are limited to 2 terms or a total of 10 years total under the 22nd Amendment •For Congressional term limits, a constitutional amendment is necessary |
2016 – president, all of house, 33 Senators
2018 – all of house, 33 Senators
2020 – president , all of house, 34 senators
2018 – all of house, 33 Senators
2020 – president , all of house, 34 senators
Congressional Primaries
PRIMARY ELECTIONS – elections in which the voters choose which candidate will represent their party in the general election
1. Closed – Used in most states, Only registered party members can vote for their party’s candidate for offices, no crossing of party lines
2. Open – Independents may vote, voters get ballot of any one party they wish, Crossing of party lines allowed >>> danger of “raiding”
3. Blanket (“free love”) – Independents may vote, voters can “mix & match” votes, i.e. vote for candidates of different parties for different offices, Unconstitutional
1. Closed – Used in most states, Only registered party members can vote for their party’s candidate for offices, no crossing of party lines
2. Open – Independents may vote, voters get ballot of any one party they wish, Crossing of party lines allowed >>> danger of “raiding”
3. Blanket (“free love”) – Independents may vote, voters can “mix & match” votes, i.e. vote for candidates of different parties for different offices, Unconstitutional
Factors in Determining Congressional Elections
Incumbency: ***The Greatest Influence*** , 90%+ of House gets reelected, 80%+ of Senate, leads to little change, a permanent Congress where seats really open only in cases of death/retirement, everyone hates Congress but still
reelects their Congress person
Special Advantages of Incumbency:
•Franking Privilege
•Staff already in place
•Patronage
•Casework done for constituents
•Gerrymandered Districts (Safe Seats)
•Name Recognition
•Pork Barrel projects for the district
•“War Chest” built up to discourage challengers from running
reelects their Congress person
Special Advantages of Incumbency:
•Franking Privilege
•Staff already in place
•Patronage
•Casework done for constituents
•Gerrymandered Districts (Safe Seats)
•Name Recognition
•Pork Barrel projects for the district
•“War Chest” built up to discourage challengers from running
Coattail effect – The extent of presidential popularity affects the House & Senate elections
•President’s party generally gains seats in the House & Senate in presidential election yr
•President’s party generally loses seats in the House & Senate in midterm election year
•President’s party generally gains seats in the House & Senate in presidential election yr
•President’s party generally loses seats in the House & Senate in midterm election year
•Media, especially in Senate elections
•Party affiliation – still a strong predictor of voting behavior
•Issues – House seats lost relates to presidential popularity/economic conditions
•Party affiliation – still a strong predictor of voting behavior
•Issues – House seats lost relates to presidential popularity/economic conditions